Monday, February 25, 2013

Honda Classic

The US PGA Tour now moves to the east coast for several tournaments in Florida.  This week is the Honda Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Honda Classic.

# Player CLi 
1  Charl Schwartzel 5.55
2  Fredrik Jacobson 8.25
3  Kevin Stadler 18.50
4  Justin Hicks 18.80
5  Lee Westwood 19.85
6  Tiger Woods 20.55
7  Matt Jones 22.30
8  Rory McIlroy 22.45
9  Ted Potter Jr 22.80
10  Justin Rose 24.50
11  Greg Chalmers 25.50
12  Charles Howell III 26.15
13  John Merrick 27.40
14  Chris Kirk 27.65
15  Keegan Bradley 29.05

I am going with the top 2 players: Schwartzel (analysis) and Jacobson (analysis).  Their CLi figure is much lower than the other players.  Schwartzel's CLi is 5.55 and Jacobson's CLi is 8.25.  The next closest CLi figure is 18.50 (Stadler).

Schwartzel placed 5th and 14th in this event the past two years (the only two years he has played in this event).  In addition, he has finished 3rd (Northern Trust Open) and 2nd (Joburg Open) in the last two medal play events he has played in.

Jacobson likes this tournament.  He has finished in the top-6 three of the seven times he has played in this event.  He would like a win at this event, and can do it with how well he plays in difficult conditions (for example, if it gets windy this week at PGA National).  Leading up to this event he has placed 9th (Accenture World Match Play), 3rd (Northern Trust Open), and 7th (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am).

For my next 3 picks I am going to pick Stadler (analysis), skip over Hicks (analysis), and pick Westwood (analysis) and Woods (analysis).

Stadler has finished 3rd (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am) and 11th (Waste Management Phoenix Open) in two of his last three events.  And he finished 9th in this event last year.

Hicks placed 17th in this tournament last year, and placed 12th several weeks ago at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am.  Plus he has yet to miss a cut this season -- having played in 4 tournaments.  However, his experience is low compared to the next two players in the CLi rankings (Westwood and Woods) and the CLi figures are not much different between Hicks, Westwood, and Woods. Thus I am going to pass on Hicks this week.

Westwood has finished 4th (2012) and 9th (2010) in two of the last 3 years in this event. He didn't fair so well last week in match play, but was playing solidly in the medal play events before that -- 21st in the Northern Trust Open, 46th in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am, and 5th in the Omega Dubai Desert Classic.

Woods is playing this event for only the second time since 2000.  He finished 2nd in his previous outing in this event, which was last year.  He also has a win under his belt in one of the three tournaments he has played in this year, which was at the Farmers Insurance Open a month ago.  He missed the cut in Abu Dhabi and fell in the first round in the match play event last week (although he did hit the ball well -- Charles Howell III just played a superb round that day).

Below are my 5 picks for the Honda Classic:

# Player CLi 
1  Charl Schwartzel 5.55
2  Fredrik Jacobson 8.25
3  Kevin Stadler 18.50
4  Lee Westwood 19.85
5  Tiger Woods 20.55

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Charl Schwartzel
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Tiger Woods
  4. Fredrik Jacobson
  5. Justin Rose
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Honda Classic

We have 3 players in common this week: Schwartzel, Woods, and Jacobson

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Honda Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

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